The website of the logistic regression analysis in the demography and public policy seminar. Created one of the simplest and easiest-to-understand websites.
website:https://disasters.weblike.jp/logistic%20regression%20overview.html
Overviews
The overviews of Natural Disasters in China are the followings:
1) Death numbers
Source: EM-DAT
2) Affected numbers
Source: EM-DAT
3) Damage costs
Source: EM-DAT
Natural disasters in China are very large scales, reflecting country’s population and geographical size. Also, we need to know that China has a rapidly growing economy. We can confirm the normal historical trends of natural disasters, from human sufferings to economic damages, which this note already mentioned (Day 77). For instance, the top 10 deadliest natural disasters in China are all before 1970s. On the contrary, the top 10 costliest natural disasters in China all occurred after 1990s.
Two Earthquakes
Yang Zhang William Drake et al. (2016)* indicate interesting views on two earthquake disaster recoveries: the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The point is why the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake recovery was so rapid compared to the 1976 earthquake.
However, the paper could add the total background changes in China, such as the economy and politics. China has changed dramatically since 1976, from historical viewpoints.
A comparison of the two earthquakes will be explained.
Yang Zhang William Drake et al. (2016), Disaster Recovery Planning after Two Catastrophes: The 1976 Tangshan Earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 34(2):174–200.
かなり前に書いたメールマガジンのコラムですが、内容は、色あせていないので、復習を兼ねて、これから数回にわたり掲載致します。（同様に英語版も順番に掲載していきます。）
2010年3月5日発行
再掲ＮＩＥＤ－ＤＩＬメールマガジン：２回】災害からの復興
□■災害からの復興■□
ハイチの大地震で復興はどのようになるのか、世界の注目は集まっています。
これまで復興についていろいろと調べましたが、考える指針の有効な理論とし
てハースという研究者らの「急速に成長しつつある都市は、被災後急速に復興
するであろうが、変化せず停滞し、あるいは下り坂にある都市は、被災後きわ
めて緩慢に復旧するか、あるいは急激に衰えていくであろう」（1977）があり
ます。この場合の成長する都市とはどういう地域かを考えた際、災害前の人口
の増加が結構指標として使えるのではないかと考えられます。実際、いろいろ
と調べたのですが、災害がどれだけ大きなものであっても、人口が増加傾向に
あった地域は、復興しやすいのではないかという予測です。例えば、伊勢湾台
風災害による名古屋市では、経済・社会的な災害の規模が大きく援助量が少な
かったのですが、一年とたたないぐらいあっという間に復興したといえる状況
になりました。比べて、ハリケーン・カトリーナ災害によるニューオリンズで
は、経済・社会的な災害規模としては、実はそれほど大きくなかったのですが、
援助量は膨大でした。にもかかわらず５年たとうとしているのに、復興はまだ
ままならないといってよい状態かもしれません。ニューオリンズは災害前から
人口の減少が著しく、サバイバルな都市とさえ言われていました。インド洋大
津波の被災地の復興についても、ここでははっきりといえませんが、同様な傾
向が多く見うけられます。
さて、ハイチの例に戻って考えてみます。ハイチ（ポルトープランス）の人
口増加率を調べてみると、災害前まで急速に増えていたことがわかりました。
人口という指標だけで考えるとハイチの復興は比較的早く成し遂げられるはず
ということになります。しかしながらハイチには上記の例では当てはめて考え
ることができない全く異なる社会状況が存在するとも考えられます。そのため
ハイチの復興は、政治の舵取りや社会状況という非常にわかり難い変数に大き
く左右されると考えなければならないのかもしれません。雑誌「エコノミス
ト」には、インド洋で起こった義援金や援助の問題、偏ったところに過剰に供
給され被害が拡大した事例など、と同様な問題がハイチでも起こるのではない
かと危惧する記事がありました。
皆さんはハイチの復興をどう考えますか。
2010年3月5日発行
Bangkok is very hot this year. Just share the results which I did on sea level, rainfall and temperature changes in Thailand from a long-range perspective.
The tide gauge at KO LAK in PrachuapKhri Khan indicates the annual mean sea level is rising. Especially, the sea level is rapidly rising after 2000.
Temperature
Warmer than before and the gap between warmer and colder (STD) is smaller.
Rainfall
Almost all the same average and std, but we can see the pattern (the peak) has changed.
The rainfall peak became earlier.
Will explain in detail later………..
Two Earthquakes
Yang Zhang William Drake, et al. (2016)* indicates interesting views on two earthquakes disaster recoveries, the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The point is, why the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake recovery was so rapid compared to the 1976’s earthquake.
However, the paper could add more about the total background changes of China such as society, economy, and politics. The china has changed dramatically after the 1976 from historical viewpoints.
The Tangshan earthquake is one of the deadliest disasters in the world and the Wenchuan earthquake is one of the top ten costliest disasters in the world also. Munich Re ranked the Wenchuan as the top four costliest disaster after the Japanese Tsunami (2011), the Hurricane Katrina (2005). and the Kobe Earthquake (1995). The number of deaths caused by the Tangshan is still controversial because of the Chinese government’s political climates at the time.
A Comparison of the two earthquakes
Yang Zhang William Drake, et al. (2016)
The Rapid Disaster Recovery after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake
Yang Zhang William Drake, et al. (2016) describes the following points, historical and socio-economic contexts, why the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake recovery was so rapid compared to the 1976’s earthquake.
[Historical context]
[Socio-economic context]
However, many things can be added about the above points such as the acceptance of international aids (Day_95).
http://disasters.weblike.jp/disasters/archives/2971
This rapid recovery from Wenchuan reminds us the Japanese historical trends from 1945 to 1959, especially after the Typhoon Isewan in 1959. The Haiti’s cases, 2010 Earthquake and 2016 Hurricane Matthew also can be found as the same analogy (The below related articles across the web).
The Meanings of the Lessons
We cannot experience the disasters so often, of course, we do not want to have disasters. This is why we should learn from the past disasters and this is what we can do all the time.
*Yang Zhang William Drake, et al. (2016) Disaster Recovery Planning after Two Catastrophes: The 1976 Tangshan Earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 34(2):174-203
[ad#ads1]
Asia is the most vulnerable in terms of natural disasters, for example, 7 of 10 of the deadliest natural disasters (1980-2014) took place in this region. The damage trend from natural disasters is from human sufferings to economic damage along with countries’ developing process. This trend is also the same with world views, developing countries to developed ones.
The following figure indicates low-income countries tend to produce a huge number of casualties.
The past posts assists the above explanation.
Concerning the trends:
http://disasters.weblike.jp/disasters/archives/2490
Regional characteristics:
http://disasters.weblike.jp/disasters/archives/2785
Bangladesh has had a lot of cyclone disasters in the history. Table 1 indicates
the past cyclone disasters. Especially, we can see the 1970 and 1991’s cyclone
disasters are severe and caused many casualties. The bellows are some reviews
of Day_110 contents.
Table 1 Cyclone disasters in Bangladesh
.
Table 2 picked up two disasters. We can compare the two. What can we say about this? Affected population was tremendously increased from 1970 to 1991. On the contrary,
the dead and missing number was decreasing. How about 1991’s cyclone disaster?
Table 2 1970 and 1991’s cyclone disasters*
Please check the dead and missing number and livestock damage.
You may have a strange feeling. The dead and missing number is
so rough. However, livestock damage number is so precise. This
could reflect the cultural and social backgrounds.
Figure 1 Sandwip Island History
We can consider a caste system somehow to understand the number.
The Brahmaputra river from the east and the Ganges river from the west bring a lot of sand to make lands in the Bay of Bengal. The people had a low status tended to live there actually.
They are easily influenced by the cyclones. In other words, they tended to die by the events.
Figure 1 shows the land, such as a Sandwip island was changing its shape by cyclones.
Figure 2 1970 and 1991 cyclones
Figure 2 indicates the shelter which was built after the 1970’s cyclone (with JICA’s scheme)
saved a lot of people’s lives. However, there were some cultural issues. For example, the shelter’s number was limited, so it was crowded in the shelter. This situation made females difficult to evacuate to the shelter. They tended to avoid to stay with males in the crowded situation. The livestocks are treated as their important assets. This also reflects their culture.
The one of the research findings after the 1970’s cyclone show the 38% of the survivors were survived by climbing trees (Figure 3).
Figure 3 A shelter and a people climbing the tree
* The sources(Figures) will be added later.
Bangladesh has had a lot of cyclone disasters in the history. Table 1 indicates
the past cyclone disasters. Especially, we can see the 1970 and 1991’s cyclone
disasters are severe and caused many casualties.
Table 1 Cyclone disasters in Bangladesh*
.
Table 2 picked up two disasters. We can compare the two. What can we say about this? The affected population was tremendously increased from 1970 to 1991. On the contrary,
the dead and missing number was decreasing. How about 1991’s cyclone disaster?
Table 2 1970 and 1991’s cyclone disasters*
Please check the dead and missing number and livestock damage.
You may have a strange feeling. The dead and missing number is
so rough. However, livestock damage number is so precise. This
could reflect the cultural and social backgrounds.
The 1991 cyclone hit Sandwip island and Chittagong city. Figure 1
shows the map.
Figure 1 Sandwip Island and Chittagong (Map source: Microsoft Group)
To be continued…….
*Table 1 and 2 ‘s source will be mentioned later.
Related books and info. for further understanding
sponsored link
The following Figure 1 is the death toll by country after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami disaster.
Figure 1 Death toll by country
Then Table 1 indicates the death toll flow of each country.
What can we say about this?
Table 1 The Death Toll Flow
As you can see Table 1, the number of victims (deaths) is changing day by day. For instance, the number of deaths reported in Indonesia from 05.01.15 to 05.01.30 is decreasing. The death toll flow of Somaria looks somehow strange. If we can consider these kinds of views, we can understand that the reported death numbers reflect the social situations of the country. These views will be discussed later.
Next, Figure 2 shows the picture taken at the tsunami memorial meeting in Phang Nga province one year after the disaster. This definitely indicates so many foreigners were killed by the tsunami. Figure 3 support this fact. This is because the affected areas were sightseeing spots. Even Thai victims include so many visitors from all over the country.
Figure 2 The Picture of the Tsunami Memorial Board
Figure 3 Indian Oceans Tsunami Victims in Thailand
The victim’s nationality is so diverse.Figure 4 indicates the top 10 deadliest disasters (actually top 6 exist) in Sweden and you can know the Indian ocean tsunami is ironically the worst natural disaster in the history of Sweden (The fatality number is 543 Wikipedia).
Figure 4 Deadliest Disasters in Sweden (1900-2014) Source: EM-DAT
[ad#ads1]
The damages caused by natural disasters are from human to economy with the development. This is one of the universal and historical trends in the world and within the countries. Mortality numbers of natural disasters tend to be decreasing with national development, but economic losses are the opposite. This is because of urbanization, science and technology advancement, asset values, and so on. This is the same as developing and developed countries’ relationships. Developing countries tend to have high mortality numbers, on the other hand, developed countries are inclined to have high economic losses.
The following tables (little bit old, sorry) which I used to research on Hurricane Katrina in 2005. What you can say about these?
Yes, table 1 indicates almost all high mortality numbers hurricane disasters in the United States are before 1960. On the contrary, table 2 shows almost all high-cost hurricane disasters are after 2000.
sponsored link
You cannot copy content of this page
