Disaster Risk Management」カテゴリーアーカイブ

Day_160: Interview Report: Hurricane Katrina Response (1)

Now I am digging up my past experience. The report is a part of the project.

The below past article can be checked for your reference.

https://disasterresearchnotes.site/archives/2975

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Date and time
7 May 2006

Visit
New Orleans Homeland Security and Public Safety Office
(New Orleans City Office of Homeland Security and Public Safety )

Interviewee
Colonel and Director

Subject
Hurricane Katrina Disaster Response

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<Contents>
< Work >
The interviewee: Responsible for the Police, fire, EMS (emergency medical services),
and crisis management of cooperation with state, federal and city

< The lessons of Katrina >
The lesson learned is, “We can not rely on external resources. Without relying on the federal (country) government, each person should think they need to protect themselves.” (This is the interview record.)

<Hurricane Katrina-What Happened>
Before Friday (8/26), all the state government was setting evacuation preparation. FEMA staff deployed throughout the city. Eighty percent of citizens evacuated on their own, but many of the rest were unable to evacuate with no means.

The city, about 15,000 civilians, were provided transportation means to be saved in the shelter. Besides, before hurricane landfall on Sunday(8/28), the people in the city who can not evacuate evacuated to Super Dome.

Since the federal government does not permit having a shelter in New Orleans, New Orleans is the only city ​​in the U.S. that does not have a shelter. The Federation and the Red Cross had considered the situation as a dangerous task because of this.

When the hurricane comes, Super Dome became a temporary shelter.

Picture: New Orleans City Hall (on 7 May 2006)

After the hurricane, we had a tough week. After all, approximately 700 people of citizens lost their lives.

Day_158: Disaster Warning (2)

I will update a column of the NIED e-mail magazine which I wrote a long time ago because the content is not faded with time. (I will do this step by step in Japanese and English) I will also add comments to update the situation.

Sorry, now I am revising this post because of the difficulties of the translation. This post will be revised again. Thank you.

Published June 4, 2010
NIED-DIL e-mail magazine: Disaster Warning (2)

■ Disaster Warning (2) ■

Following the tornado that hit Saroma in Hokkaido in November 2006, I was given the opportunity to visit Oklahoma in the United States in February 2007 for a survey on tornado disaster response, especially tornado disaster alerts. In particular, I visited mainly the NWC (National Weather Center) built inside the University of Oklahoma. At there, Professor Emeritus Yoshikazu Sasaki helped us. He is very famous for being a model of the Hollywood movie “Twister.” I learned that U of Oklahoma, especially a climatological course rapidly became competitive in the U.S. after the movie was released. In the movie “Twister,” there was a scene where cows were flying in the air, at NWC, there was a coffee shop called Flying Cow.

The most impressive thing about the visit was the recognition that the NWC needed a wide range of cooperation on tornado response and put emphasis on community awareness. Regarding multi-disciplinary collaboration, the reason behind this is that even if we increase the accuracy and speed from tornado prediction to warning by science and technology, it will be human beings that will respond to it. Also, there is an organization called the Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) <Warning Judgment Training Center> inside the university. The existence is based on the fact that the decision of warning (Warning Decision) is not only radar data, but also specialized in model guidance and mesoscale analysis in combination with the human mind. People, the Emergency Manager, make decisions based on a variety of factors, including technical knowledge and reports from spotters (registered volunteers who inform the situation on the spot). The local factors and political conditions are also overlapped. The knowledge of meteorology expertise alone could not attain the purpose.

As for local enlightenment activities, as a contribution to the community, create and publicize many brochures, open a center, for example, tie-up with McDonald’s in a program called McLeady and give educational advertisements was doing. In this way, the NWC recognizes that disaster alerts are based on various factors such as understanding of human behavior, bonding with society, and political situations, and it is common sense that meteorology alone cannot respond. It was impressive that it was done.

Issued June 4, 2010-Issue 5

https://disasterresearchnotes.site/archives/2553

Day_157: Disaster Warning (1)

I will update a column of the NIED e-mail magazine which I wrote a long time ago because the content is not faded with time. (I will do this step by step in Japanese and English) I will also add comments to update the situation.

Sorry, now I am revising this post because of the difficulties of the translation. This post will be revised again. Thank you.

Published May 6, 2010
NIED-DIL e-mail magazine: Disaster Warning (1)

■ Disaster Warning (1) ■

In February 2008, a survey provided an opportunity to visit the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Hawaii. In a study, I interviewed the director of the PTWC, and the first thing that caught my attention was the role of the media. The director told me that a public tsunami evacuation alert required three hours before the event, which was too time-sensitive, but the media was an advantage to do this. However, for the government organization, there were various restrictions, such as warnings in an international framework. I remembered the Chilean Navy’s disaster response to the damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami in Chile in February this year.

Next, I was interested in science, technology, and data that are the basis of the alarm decision. I think that normal (flood etc.) warnings will be judged based on current and past data, but especially for tsunami warnings, there were errors in the data of the original earthquake and the tide gauge. To do judge, we should know the 99.99 percent could be the error. The fact that the past data is not very useful because the devices to figure out the data are changing day by day, making it difficult to rely on it.

From these facts, it was generally noticed that the disaster warning was based on the combination of the progress of science, technology and the competence of the person in charge. The actual warning also relies on the institution belonging to it. For example, it was also needed to add variables such as the recipient of the alert, the psychology of the local people, social situation, and various systems.

Issued May 6, 2010 No. 4

Ref.

https://disasterresearchnotes.site/archives/2592

Day_152 : (In Japanese) 災害による報告死者数

かなり前に書いたメールマガジンのコラムですが、内容は、色あせていないので、復習を兼ねて、これから数回にわたり掲載致します。(同様に英語版も順番に掲載していきます。)

2010年2月4日発行
再掲NIED-DILメールマガジン:1回】災害による報告死者数
■災害による報告死者数■

1月12日ハイチで大きな地震がありました。その影響は、現在でも大きな社会問題ともなっていますが、初期の段階で大統領が20万人の犠牲者が出ていると宣言しました。

2005年8月末のハリケーン・カトリーナ災害のときは、最初1万人との報道がなされましたが、最終的に1千3百人ぐらいになりました。死者が少ないのに越したことはありませんが、日本と比べてお国柄がこのようなところにもでるのかと感じます。

日本の場合で典型的な事例は、阪神・淡路大震災の時です。当時筆者は京都に住んでおり、京都市内で働いておりましたが、大きなゆれのあと、朝7時ごろは、死者の数がまだ数人だったとTVなどで報道されていたのを覚えています。それが時間が経つにつれて、数百人、数千人と時間が経つごとに増えていきました。

アメリカは、トップダウンで戦略的、日本は、ボトムアップで正確さ重視、そんな感じがします。2004年のインド洋津波では、周辺諸国の報告死者数が上下していましたが、この点をとっただけでも、災害がその国の経済や社会状況を浮き彫りにする一端が見えてきます。

ハイチに関しては時を追うごとに報告死者数が増えておりその状況が心配されます。初期の段階の大統領の宣言どおりの数字にならないことを祈ります。

2010年2月4日発行

P.S.

例えば下記のワールドビジョンのHPでは、現在の推定死者を、250,000人としています。つまり、最初の報告は最終的には、ある意味的を得ていたことになってしまいました。

https://www.worldvision.org/disaster-relief-news-stories/2010-haiti-earthquake-facts

Day_149: Flood Disaster Preparedness Indices (FDPI)

ICHARM (International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management) allowed me to engage in the project on the development of Flood Disaster Preparedness Indices (FDPI). This project is also linked to one of the projects of the Typhoon Committee (World Meteorological Organization/United Nations ESCAP).

You can see the outline of the project on the following website:.

http://www.apan-gan.net/adaptation-technologies/database/flood-disaster-preparedness-indices-fdpi

The established site is the self-evaluation system for local disaster managers around the world, especially in developing countries. Therefore, we have prepared the multi-language (16 languages) versions. You can evaluate your community’s preparedness ability by yourself, and experience can also be shared depending on your situation.  You can easily see your results on the website. The results are automatically sent to the administrator to check on the situation. If the administrator understands the severity, he or she can communicate with the international aid agencies.

http://www.fdpi.jp/fdpi/

To be continued…

Day_148: The World Largest Disaster Links

Below is the disaster links site, which was created a long time ago. I will renew this site step-by-step. In addition, some are still only in Japanese, and original disaster-related pictures are omitted, so I will also consider these.

http://disasters.weblike.jp/linklibrary.html

The below disaster-related world organization’s link site is the one that was built when I was working at NIED DIL and is still working as one of the products there. I am very happy to know that, but I would also like to renew this to contribute to the institute with my gratitude in the near future, I hope.

https://dil.bosai.go.jp/link/world/english/index.html

Day_141 : Flood disasters in Thailand : 14 deaths are reported in south (7 Dec. 2016)

Thai News mentioned that “Thailand declares disaster zones after floods kill 14“.
The created National Disaster Risk Assessment Mapping indicates flood disaster countermeasure is the first priority in Thailand(Day_93 ).

http://disasters.weblike.jp/disasters/archives/2935

The Thai Disaster Chronology also suggests that southern provinces of Thailand are the most vulnerable areas to the floods (Day_134,135). We can learn from the data.

http://disasters.weblike.jp/disasters/archives/3404

http://disasters.weblike.jp/disasters/archives/3437

 

Day_137 : Aging Asia to Natural Disasters -Thailand(2)-

Day_68 indicates Thai population in 2012 was 64,460,000 and the proportion of those over 65 is 8.6 percent (11 percent in 2016) compared to 3.1 percent in 1970. This shows that Thailand is facing an aging society and the World Population Prospects* predicts this trend will accelerate. This situation is not exclusively in Thailand, but can likewise be viewed in almost all Asian nations. In addition, Asia is the most vulnerable in terms of natural disasters such as 7 of 10 of the deadliest natural disasters (1980-2014) took place in this region(Day_79). The World Bank mentions how Thailand faces the aging society from an economic development perspective, however, we also need to recognize this from a disaster reduction viewpoint. Okushiri island case can give us a significant insight(Day_75). This gives us a challenge of how disaster-resilient society can be established in the situation.

The World Bank notices**:
The Thai population is aging rapidly. The declining share of the working-age population will affect economic growth.
– As of 2016, 11% of the Thai population (about 7.5 million people) are 65 years or older, compared to 5% in 1995.
-By 2040, it is projected that 17 million Thais will be 65 years or older – more than a quarter of the population.
-Together with China, Thailand has the highest share of elderly people of any developing country in East Asia and Pacific.
-The primary driver of aging has been the steep decline in fertility rates, which fell from 6.1 in 1965 to 1.5 in 2015, as a result of rising incomes and education levels and the successful National Family Planning Program launched in 1970.
-The working-age population is expected to shrink by around 11% as a share of the total population between now and 2040 – from 49 million people to around 40.5 million people.
This decline in the working-age population is higher in Thailand than in all other developing East Asia and Pacific countries, including China.

https://disasterresearchnotes.site/archives/2785

https://disasterresearchnotes.site/archives/2753

* World Population Prospects
https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

** World Bank, 2016
Thailand Economic Monitor – June 2016: Aging Society and Economy

Disaster data and statistics can be referred by the following link:
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/statistics/

Day_133 : Science, Technology, Population, and Lessons for DRR

Japanese people have tended to trust the government and science & technology so much.
These are one of what we learned from recent disasters. After the second world war, Japanese gov. has built high sea walls along the coastline especially potential risk areas all over Japan. We have also developed warning systems along with rapid economic growth. Not only those, but we have also developed soft countermeasures such as disaster education and training, especially after the 1995 Kobe Earthquake. After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (GEJET) disaster, we have realized what has happened because of our over trust to the government and science&technology. This is why Japanese gov. has particularly focused on the community since the disaster, establishing a new frame on the community disaster planning in the disaster countermeasure basic act. The recovery plans on the affected coastal communities tended to change more integrated manners and so did disaster countermeasures than before, looks like turning back to the time when we did not have advanced science and technologies.

We need to know the limitations of the gov. and science&technology’s roles. We also can consider the demographic change to do the job for disaster risk reductions. For example, Japan is facing a severe aging society, so our government resources will be decreasing to cover the situations. We need to have more self-help and mutual help than public help.

Learning from the lessons and past wisdom with those considerations is also very important. “Inamura no Hi” is one of the important lessons we can learn from the past.

http://disasterresearchnotes.site/archives/2720

“Inamura no Hi” is a story of a man who noticed a precursor of a large tsunami at the earliest stage and led village inhabitants to a higher ground by burning harvested rice sheaves. This story was based on a true story at the time of Ansei-Nankai Tsunami (1854), which claimed around 3,000 lives in the coastal areas of Western Japan (ADRC).

Hirokawa Town’s video well explains the background of the story in short and their tsunami disaster education.

 

 

 

Day_132_Area BCM (1)

In 2011, Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (GEJET) disaster and the Chao Phraya River flood disaster made huge economic damages. They are in the top 10 costliest natural disasters (The very top and the 7th) in the world as you can see the following table.

top10costliest_natdisasters

Source: NatCatSERVICE/Munich RE 2016

From the historical point of views, the disaster trends from human sufferings to economic damages. The following figure shows the economic damage tendency is increasing with time and we can see the year of 2011 was an outstanding.

disaster-trends-cost

Source: EM-DAT

Especially, the globalization of the economic activities reflect these damages.In the event of large-scale disaster, a business sector is limited in its abilities to cope with disaster without the cooperative approach taken by the stakeholders of the public and private sectors in those areas.

With this situation, the concept of the Area Business Continuity Management (Area BCM) was revealed. This is a cooperative approach by those who wish to improve capacity for continuity and/or early recovery of business in their area in the event of disasters that affect the entire area(AHA CENTRE et al., 2015).

[Reference]
AHA CENTRE, JICA, et al., (2015) Planning Guide for Area Business Continuity: Area BCM Toolkits Version 2

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