Category Archives: Thailand

Day_68 : Aging Asia to Natural Disasters -Thailand-

Many Asian countries are facing an aging society. For instance, the Thai population in 2012 was 64,460,000 and the proportion of those over 65 is 8.6 percent compared to 3.1 percent in 1970. This shows that Thailand is facing an aging society and the World Population Prospects* predicts this trend will accelerate. This situation is not exclusively in Thailand, but can likewise be viewed in almost all Asian nations. In addition, Asia is the most vulnerable in terms of natural disasters such as 7 of 10 of the deadliest natural disasters (1980-2014) took place in this region.

 

World bank notice**:
The Thai population is aging rapidly. The declining share of the working age population will affect economic growth.
– As of 2016, 11% of the Thai population (about 7.5 million people) are 65 years or older, compared to 5% in 1995.
-By 2040, it is projected that 17 million Thais will be 65 years or older – more than a quarter of the population.
-Together with China, Thailand has the highest share of elderly people of any developing country in East Asia and the Pacific.
-The primary driver of aging has been the steep decline in fertility rates, which fell from 6.1 in 1965 to 1.5 in 2015, as a result of rising incomes and education levels and the successful National Family Planning Program launched in 1970.
-The working age population is expected to shrink by around 11% as a share of the total population between now and 2040 – from 49 million people to around 40.5 million people.
-This decline in the working-age population is higher in Thailand than in all other developing East Asia and Pacific countries, including China.

* World Population Prospects
https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

** World Bank, 2016
Thailand Economic Monitor – June 2016: Aging Society and Economy

Disaster data and statistics can be referred by the following link:
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/statistics/

Day_56 : A cyclic model of development-environment-disaster

I once proposed a model for analyzing relationships between natural disasters and society, a cyclic model of development-environment-disaster. This provides a long-term perspective and an overhead view for examining natural disasters. This analytical framework could expand on previous research from the viewpoints of the nexus between development and environment and also development and disasters. This also makes it possible to consider the relationships between development, environment, and disasters and the process from the disaster to the victims and from the disaster back to development.

160731_cyclic model

Not only that, but this circular thinking method also provides viewpoints of circulation, opposite direction, cycle speed, time, development stage, and so on. Moreover, this framework provides foresight into considering relationships, not only for development, environment, and disasters in terms of domestic views but also for two or more countries. This is effective for grasping the meaning of natural disasters in the social context. In other words, this framework makes it possible to stimulate sociological imagination and to visualize the issues.

I actually analyzed the Typhoon Iwean disaster in 1959, the Indian Ocean Tsunami disaster in 2004, and the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami disaster in 2011 with this framework. However, these works are only in Japanese.

To be continued.

Abstract of the Japanese paper
http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/110008664615/en

Day_18 : Natural disasters in Thailand

2 Replies

“More must be done to fight climate change” (Bangkok Post)
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1034545/more-must-be-done-to-fight-climate-change

The above article was found on the Bangkok Post. The risk assessment mapping in Thailand* indicates the flood is the first priority to prepare. Disaster data infrastructure is challenging in Thailand to analyze. The culture to establish an excellent disaster management system in Thailand could be facilitated by the research based on the data infrastructure.

* Risk assessment mapping in Thailand (Tentative)

http://disasters.weblike.jp/disasters/archives/2935

The above was already published in JAEE report.