I will update a column of the NIED e-mail magazine which I wrote a long time ago because the content is not faded with time. (I will do this step by step in Japanese and English) I will also add comments to update the situation.
Published March 5, 2010
NIED-DIL e-mail magazine: Recoveries from Disasters
■ Disaster Recoveries ■
Global attention is being focused on how recovery will take place after the Haiti earthquake. I have studied a lot about disaster recovery. Still, as a valid theory of thinking, a researcher named Haas says, “A rapidly growing city will recover quickly after the disaster but will remain unchanged and stagnant or downhill cities will recover very slowly after the disaster or will quickly decline “(1977). When considering what kind of area or a growing city or not is in this case, the population before the disaster could be examined as an indicator. I’ve researched a lot and predict that no matter how massive the distraction maybe, an area with a growing population may be easier to recover. For example, in the city of Nagoya, due to the Typhoon Ise Bay disaster, the scale of economic and social damages were plentiful, and the amount of aid was small, but it was said that it was revived in less than a year. In comparison, the scale of economic and social disasters in New Orleans due to the Hurricane Katrina disaster was not so large relatively as statistics, but the amount of aid was enormous. Nevertheless, it may be useful to say that five years have passed and that recovery has not yet been well. New Orleans was even expressed to be a surviving city, even before the disaster. Regarding the recovery of the stricken area of the Indian Ocean tsunami, it is not clear here, but there were many similar trends.
Let’s return to the example of Haiti. Examination of the population growth rate in Haiti (Port-au-Prince) showed that it was overgrowing until the disaster occurred. Haiti’s revival should be relatively quick, given the population index alone. However, it is also possible that Haiti has an entirely different social situation that cannot be applied in the above example. You may have to think that Haiti’s revival will be heavily influenced by the very elusive variables of political steering and social conditions. There is an article in the magazine “ Economist ” that fears that similar problems may occur in Haiti, such as the problem of contributions and aid in the Indian Ocean cases where oversupply was unevenly distributed, and the damage was widened.
What do you think of Haiti’s recovery?
The data below indicates a lot about the theory.
Haiti Population Data
Port-au-Prince Population Data
Introduce you two earthquake information websites. 1) The Earthquake Track 2) J-RISQ
1) The Earthquake Track
The Earthquake Track is useful to overview the earthquake occurrence situation in the world (Figure 1). As you can see in the below figure, every day’s earthquake occurrence situation such as how many times the earthquake occurred, what is the biggest earthquake of the day, and the earthquake locations on the map can be seen. Also, we can access to the detailed information of the quakes.
Figure 1 The Earthquake Track
Figure 2 shows J-RISQ provided by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED).
Figure 2 J-RISQ website
As you can see the Figure 2, this site does not only provide earthquake (hazard) information but also affected population estimation (exposure). In addition, the site gives us historical information of the affected area. You can also refer prediction data on the map such as earthquake distribution of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and distribution of return period of 50,000-year.
Day_100 indicated a human suffering exacerbation process in New Orleans during the 2005 Hurricane Katrina.
Day_100 : A Human Suffering Exacerbation-Data from Greater New Orleans Community Data Center
The Figure 1 again shows the relationships between the human suffering exacerbation process and social backgrounds with data. Table 1 also indicates the estimated death numbers in some wards.
Figure 1 Human Suffering Exacerbation Process and Social Background
Table 1 Found Dead Bodies in New Orleans
The total views are indicated in the following Figure 2, 3, 4, and Table 2.
Concerning the population change, New Orleans is the one of the decreasing communities in US. For example, rapid urbanization related matters caused environmental degradation before the disaster. Campanella(2004)mentioned New Orleans became not a sustainable, but a survival city. The lower 9th ward, for example, with regard to the ethnicity, we can see the high black and the African American proportion. With respect to Income, we can also identify the people living in the Lower 9th ward have lower incomes.
Figure 2 Population Change Louisiana( Light Blue ) and New Orleans (Dark Blue)
Figure 3 Percent Black or African American, 2000 (Census, 2000)
Figure 4 Percent Black or African American and White
(Source: Congressional Research Service)
Table 2 People’s Income in both New Orleans and Lower 9th Ward
These are referred by an NIED publication.
First, the theoretical examination’s concept is explained and two disaster recovery theories are introduced. Second, the first theory is explained and studied. Third, the second theory is explained and examined*.
The concept is explained as follows:
Figure1 Disaster Recovery Concept
The followings are the two disaster recovery theories used for this study.
１) Theoretical framework 1
Disasters contribute to change, they do so primarily by accelerating trends that are already underway prior to impact ＜Bates et al.（1963）; Bates(1982); Bates and Peacock (1993)＞＜Haas et al.（1977）＞
２) Theoretical framework 2
Disaster Recovery Process is influenced by
① Devoted aid volume from outside society
② Disaster scale
③ Community strength(Social System Strength) ＜Hirose（1982）＞
The first theory is confirmed by some cases. You can see the following figures such as Kanto earthquake, Fukui earthquake, Typhoon Isewan in Japan, and Hurricane Katrina in US.
Figure2 Disaster Recoveries in Japan
Figure3 The Disaster Recovery from Hurricane Katrina in US.
To be continued…………………..
*This is the presentation summary. The presentation was made in 2011 after the tsunami in Japan.
Related Info. and Books
A demographic change is one of the key aspects to examine the future natural disaster risk. The below 2 paragraphs were just picked up from the papers.
“We argue that if we fail to acknowledge and act on the mounting
evidence regarding population composition, migration, inequality,
and disaster vulnerability, we will continue to experience disasters
with greater regularity and intensity” (William and Havidan 2008)
“From a disasters analysis point of view, population growth and patterns of economic development are more important than climate change or cyclical variations in weather.”
(Cred Crunch No.38)