Day_164 : Development Environment Disaster Cycle Model

As mentioned before in Day_56, it is clear the model, development-environment-disaster cycle model is an analyzer that can be considered in a wide range of areas. In other words, this analysis perspective raises the sociological position of natural disasters, and the stepping stone of their historical and geographical connections become clearer. We believe that it will even be possible to provide various perspectives to prevent it from being guided.

Day_56 : A cyclic model of development-environment-disaster

Analytical Viewing Angle by Causal Cycle Model: Case of Isewan Typhoon Disaster and Indian Ocean Tsunami Disaster

In this section, Isewan typhoon disaster and Indian Ocean tsunami disaster are specifically analyzed using the analysis view angle, the causal cycle model of development, environment, and disaster. The first is the Isewan Typhoon that hit Nagoya on September 26, 1959. The disaster was a turning point of disaster management in postwar Japan, but focusing on driftwood damage, which is one of the important aspects of the disaster, the economic recovery of postwar Japan, trade with the United States, and Japan. Forest management, natural disasters such as landslides, the problem of hay fever, which is also called national illness, and the inter-relationship between deforestation and natural disasters in the Philippines, which becomes today, will become clear. Second, regarding the Indian Ocean Tsunami that caused enormous damage on December 26, 2004, mainly in the countries around the Indian Ocean, the damage in Thailand will be analyzed. This analysis reveals the development-environment-disaster in Thailand and its relationship with Japan and Western countries.

The figures are shown as follows:

Figure 1: Interconnections of Typhoon Isewan Disaster

Figure 2: Interconnections of Indian Ocean Tsunami Disasters in Thailand

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Day_150: Sea Level, Rainfall, and Temperature Changes in Thailand

Bangkok is very hot this year.  Just share the results which I did on sea level, rainfall and temperature changes in Thailand from a long-range perspective.

The tide gauge at KO LAK in PrachuapKhri Khan indicates the annual mean sea level is rising. Especially, the sea level is rapidly rising after 2000.


Warmer than before and the gap between warmer and colder (STD) is smaller.


Almost all the same average and std, but we can see the pattern (the peak) has changed.

The rainfall peak became earlier.

Will explain in detail later………..

Day_104 : Lessons from a Japanese Environmental Movement- The Matsumura Research Group (2)

Mishima Numazu Shimizu (MNS) environmental movement in 1963-1964 is the turning point of a Japanese environmental history. The core of the movement is the science-based issues, especially, The Environmental Impact Assessment conducted by the Government Research Group and the Local Research Group.

Day_96 : Lessons from a Japanese Environmental Movement- The Matsumura Research Group (1)

Proposed the Development Plan

The below Figure 1 and Table 1 indicate the proposed development plan. These are the companies which had planned to come to the area. You can also see the scale of the plan.

planned project MNS
Figure 1  Proposed an Industrial Complex Plan

Table 1 The Scale of the Plan

The planned MNS

What is the MNS Movement?
The following two factors can be highlighted to explain the MNS movement. The first, the survey carried out by students (KOINOBORI research). The second, a few hundred education programs (mainly for local citizens)

In regard to the student survey, the survey carried out by students of Numazu Technical High School consists of three types by using local materials which were KOINOBORI, empty bottles and thermometers. The KOINOBORI were used in the air current survey that was conducted by about 300 students. The students made some air current maps that showed that the government’s appraisal of wind direction was incorrect. These maps gave decisive data to the Matsumura research group. Empty bottles were used for the water current survey. Thermometers enabled the students to make some maps showing the variation of temperatures.

On the other hand, the results of the survey reported by students of East Numazu High School which were called “Petrochemical Complex Project in Numazu and Mishima Area” was conducted by a Local Research Club. They researched it by using social scientific methods (including the survey in Yokkaichi City). The MNS activists use this report.

With reference to the education programs, many education programs were conducted by Numazu Technical High School teachers. They were held at schools, at the town halls and in the streets. Because of the programs, local citizens (including farmers and fishermen) became eager to learn. Local citizens wanted to know what was going on in their locality.

The Students Participatory Survey

The following Figure 2  shows the wind directions are from the sea to the land. This map was created by the students during the Koinobori time. This means the local people would be influenced by the pollutions from the planned factories. However, the government survey appealed the different ways.

Wind directions student survey
Figure2  Wind directions survey conducted by high school students
(Source :  Mitsuo Taketani, 1967)

The Kurokawa Research Group (Gov. Research group) carried out the first largest ever Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) by the Japanese government in 1964. The representative was Dr.Masatake Kurokawa and the staff consisted of national academics. The budget was about 20 million yen (about 180,000 USD) at that time. The research was carried out by using helicopters and high-tech machines. The Kurokawa Research Group was nominated by the Minister of International Trade and Industry and the Minister of Public Health.

On the other hand, the Matsumura Research Group carried out the EIA by getting the cooperation of local people, including high school students. The representative was Dr.Seiji Matsumura and the staff consisted of two researchers with international experience and local high school teachers (Table 2). The budget was about 100 thousand yen (about 900 USD) at that time. The research was conducted using readily available materials and low-tech manpower (for example, Koinobori research). It meant that research people, as well as the local people and high school students, used their own ideas. The Matsumura research group was nominated by the Mayor of Mishima city, Mr.Taizo Hasegawa. They use students, local materials, and Japanese culture.

Table 2 Matsumura Research Group

local research group members
* I have life stories about them by interview surveys

The Formation of the Matsumura Research Group

The following is the formation process of the Matsumura Research Group. The National Institute and the Local high school have bonded together. These make ‘Think globally, act locally’.

  1. Education Seminar about Pollution Held by Two High School Teachers and a Professor
  2. Explanation of the Estimated Pollution Levels Given to the NIG (National Institute of Genetics) by Mr.Nagaoka and Mr.Nishioka (Teachers)
  3. Decided by the NIG Members to Refuse the Petrochemical Complex Plan
  4. Advice Given to Mishima City’s Mayor (Hasegawa) from the NIG Members to Establish the Research Committee for EIA
  5. Decision by Hasegawa to Reject the Proposed Petrochemical Complex
  6. Acceptance of Numazu Technical High School and NIG to do EIA in the Area

To be continued.

Day_96 : Lessons from a Japanese Environmental Movement- The Matsumura Research Group (1)

Mishima Numazu Shimizu (MNS) environmental movement in 1963-1964 is the turning point of a Japanese environmental history. The core of the movement is the science-based issues, especially, Environmental Impact Assessmentsconducted by the Government Research Group and the Local Research Group.

They fought the results and local people finally assisted the local research group research findings and explanations to choose their future.

Actually, this is the first national EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) in Japan, which failed and almost all Japanese do not know.

I conducted field research on the local research group for a long time. I stayed local member’s house for over 1 week and collected the documents, for example. Unfortunately, almost all members have passed away now. The followings are the outlines.

In 1963, the national government and local councils proposed the one large industrial complex in Mishima city, Numazu town, and Shimizu town area in Shizuoka prefecture near to the Mt.Fuji.This was one of the largest development projects in Japan at that time. After this announcement, the MNS environmental movement was started with the local people. Local high school teachers and national research institute researchers led this movement with their scientific and local knowledge.

Revolutionary Events in the MNS Movement
– The survey carried out by high school students (KOINOBORI research)
because it happened  in a KOINOBORI time (Japanese culture)
→A high school teacher (The Matsumura Research Group member) led this survey.
→These results were accurate in the local wind direction which was against governmental research findings with explanations. Gov. research group had a huge budget, they used a helicopter to check the wind directions

Figure 1 Koinobori   (Source: Wikipedia)

– A few hundred education programs (mainly for local citizens)

The Main Impact of the MNS movement
Former high-ranking officer confessed:
“We (the government) thought we had lost when the Numazu citizens flew those KOINOBORI (carp-shaped streamers) for research purpose. Besides that we also realized that we needed to make laws governing pollution. If we had not done it, we could not have been able to set up any MNS type projects”

The Main Impact of the MNS movement
Prevention Movement against Pollution
Local Government Reform Movement
Legal Action in the Movement
Conducting Independent Research
Implementing Environmental Education Programs

After the movement, Kawasaki City, Tokyo Metropolitan Area,
and Kyoto City became reformist local governments, which
control pollution more seriously than the national government.

Matsumura Research Group
Outcome: “Self Assessment” by the local research group overcome
the “Official Assessment” by the national research group

Mr. Shiramatsu (LDP) criticized during the time in the assembly:
“The Kurokawa Research Group (the national research group) is reliable.
It consists of the country’s most respected specialists in various fields.
They could be called the nation’s best brain. On the other hand, the
Matsumura Research Group (the local research group) is unreliable.
The member are 2 doctorates of Agriculture and 4 high school teachers.
How could they carry out reliable research?
In addition, I heard the budget
of the Matsumura Research Group is about 100 thousand yen. So the research
could be regarded a non-scientific thing”.

To be continued・・・・・

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Day_59 : Lessons from a Japanese environmental movement

The UN emphasis the importance of building a bridge between science and policy*. The Mishima Numazu and Shimizu (MNS) environmental movement in 1963-1964 is really really turning point in Japan. After the movement, the Japanese environmental movement was spreading out all over Japan. Establishing the Japanese Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Law was delayed because of this movement. The core story related to science and policy is the conflict between the governmental EIA research group and the local EIA group. The government group used high-tech machines and money, but the local research group used high school students, local people, and local knowledge. For example, the government group did research by using a helicopter to check the wind direction, on the other hand, the local group used a carp-shaped streamer for examining the direction around the 5th of May in 1963. Japanese people usually raise carp-shaped streamers in front of the house to celebrate their children’s prosperity. Finally, local people, including farmers and fishermen studied hard to recognize the environmental impacts of their living areas and chose the local research group results.