Disaster Preparedness」カテゴリーアーカイブ

Day_124 : Chain Reactions of Economic Damage- 2011 Chao Phraya River Flood in Thailand (3) Horizontal and Vertical Damage Exacerbations

Continue to explain the chain reactions of economic damage caused by Chao Phraya river flood. There were horizontal and vertical damage exacerbations types.

Concerning the horizontal damage exacerbations, we sometimes neglect indirect severe impacts caused by disasters. However, in this global world, economic activities are connected each other and so do the impacts. The following Figure 1 shows the three types of disaster exacerbations for example. The first category is “All or most factories of one’s own as well as those of partners suffer serious flood damage”. This category is the severest. The second category is “One’s factories suffer serious damage, but partners suffer no or light damage”. The third category is “One’s factories suffer no or light damage while partners suffer serious damage”. However, if the one’s factory totally relies on the partners which are affected by the disaster could have a very serious impact.

Figure 1  Damage types and severities (Horizontal)

With respect to the vertical damage exacerbation, the key word is the suppliers’ responsibility. For example, a big major car company has the responsibility for customers to supply cars, subcontractors have the responsibility for the car company to supply the parts,  sub-subcontractors have the responsibility for the subcontractors to supply the parts of the parts, sub-sub-subcontractors have the responsibility for the sub-subcontractors to supply the parts of the parts of the parts, and so on. The numbers of the companies become larger along with this vertical pyramidal structure. However, their resources are opposite as mentioned in Figure 2. Industrial estates and parks ordered the evacuation for the companies very slowly at that time of the flood because of some reasons (The reasons will be explained). However, the big companies continued their activities until the time, so sub and sub-sub and sub-sub-sub contractors could not evacuate until the bigger (upstream) companies’ evacuation decision making because of the supplier’s responsibilities. The big companies could evacuate so fast and effectively. They have the resources to do so. However, smaller companies could not evacuate so fast because they needed to wait until the bigger company’s evacuation decision and they tended to have limited resources along with the structure. They, for instance, could not move heavy machines to the upper floors. They did not have enough employees, systems, or plans to do so.

Figure 2  Damage types and severities (Vertical)

These are the outlines of the disaster damage exacerbation of the supply chains.  These are presented at several meetings in Japan.

Day_100 : A Human Suffering Exacerbation-Data from Greater New Orleans Community Data Center

The Greater New Orleans Community Data Center (GNOCDC) website was found after the field survey on Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana and Mississippi in 2005. I was so amazed. This is the one of the demographers great contributions to disaster research.

The site provides the information of the pre-Katrina situations by parish and also by ward. This is very useful to examine the social backgrounds of the areas in detail.

gnocdcPrekatrinaFigure 1 GNOCDC (Pre-Katrina data site)

The paper on Karina disaster using these data is to explain how human sufferings were exacerbated by the stage with the social background as shown in Figure 2 (Nakasu, 2006 :Sorry in Japanese, however, summary and figures are in English).

human suffering
Figure 2 Victimization Process

Figure 3
Victimization Process by Stage

Table 1 Found Dead Bodies in New Orleans  

dead in neworleans

The process can be divided into five stages with time such as A) Pre-disaster B) Direct damage C) Social disorder D) Life environment  E) Reconstruction and recovery. Then, these are examined with the social background data (Figure 3).

For example,  1) Pre-disaster stage, I picked up an evacuation aspect to explain the social background of this stage.

Using the GNOCDC database, I could check the possession ratio of the vehicle in some areas.

Figure 4 No Vehicle Available Ratio (GNOCDC)

Table 1 and Figure 4 show the people in Lower 9th ward, one of the most severely affected areas, had a low possession ratio of the vehicle. This can explain so many residents needed to have government help to evacuate and they could not evacuate before the Hurricane hit.

The general social background, such as ethnic groups, household incomes, and others with other stages of examinations will be discussed later.

The Great Deluge: Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, and the Mississippi Gulf Coast (English Edition)

Day_93: Natural disasters in Thailand – National Disaster Risk Assessement Mapping

Day_18 mentioned “More must be done to fight climate change” (Bangkok Post)

Day_18 : Natural disasters in Thailand

The national risk assessment mapping in Thailand is briefly explained below.

Table 1  Disaster data in Thailand
A target period of these EM-DAT data is from 1900 to 2014. However, the large numbers of death, affected people, and damage cost caused by natural disasters are all after 1970s as shown in Table 1. The data clarify the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the 2011 Chao Phraya river flood disasters are so influential in Thailand.

Figure 1 National Risk Assessment Mapping in Thailand

Using EM-DAT data of Thailand (1900-2014), Figure 1 was created. These risk assessment mapping (Frequency-Impact by each damage type) is very simple, but we can easily grasp the whole pictures of the risks.

To evaluate each risk, the following risk matrix options are useful.
Figure 2 Risk matrix options (1)

Figure 3 Risk matrix options (2)

It is clear that the flood is the most countermeasures required disaster in Thailand from the Figure1. By using Figure 2 and 3, for example, we can recognize the extensive management and monitoring are essential and immediate action must be taken against the floods.

The above explanations are very rough. Detailed explanations will be discussed later.

The above was already published with explanations as a report for the Japanese Association for Earthquake and Engineering (JAEE).

Day_85 : Shingen Embarkment

Those who can rule the water can also rule the country. This proverb became a reality, especially during the Sengoku period (Warring States Period) in Japan.

Shingen embankment was a flood control system built over 400 years ago to protect the northern part of the Kofu Basin, the rich rice paddy areas of Kai Province, then under the rule of Daimyo (District Lord) Shingen Takeda. The main problem is that the Midai River, a left branch of the Kamanashi River, the major branch of the Fuji River, once the Midai River flow increases and breaks the bank protecting the Kofu Basin at its confluence with the Kamanashi River, the flood damage to the paddy fields was extensive. Such floods were known even from the prehistoric times. Towards AD 1500, Shingen Takeda, the Daimyo (District Lord) of Kai country, directed that flood control works be made to protect the rice paddy area of his country(Takeuchi , 2003*).

Shingen Takeda was one of the strongest Samurai Daimyo (District Lord). He controlled his soldiers well and so the floods.

shingenFigure: Shingen Embarkment**

*The Basis of Civilization – Water Science? (Proceedings of theUNESCO/IAMS/IWHA symposium held in Rome. December 2003). I AI IS I’ubl. 286, 2004

**Brochure (Information about Fuji river Flood Control)


Day_74 : Population Studies and Disasters

A demographic change is one of the key aspects to examine the future natural disaster risk. The below 2 paragraphs were just picked up from the papers.

“We argue that if we fail to acknowledge and act on the mounting
evidence regarding population composition, migration, inequality,
and disaster vulnerability, we will continue to experience disasters
with greater regularity and intensity” (William and Havidan 2008)

“From a disasters analysis point of view, population growth and patterns of economic development are more important than climate change or cyclical variations in weather.”
(Cred Crunch No.38)

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Day_55 : Tsunami Surveys in Hawaii

After the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, we have started to collect the information on the tide gauge records around the Indian Ocean. We also discussed the emergency management aspects for the future possible tsunamis in the Indian Ocean at Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC)*, International Tsunami Information Center**(ITIC), and Univ. of Hawaii Sea Level Center(UHSLC)*** in 2008.

*Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
We can confirm the present tsunami warning information.
The PTWC is the core center for tsunami warnings in the world.
As you may know, tsunami is a Japanese word and the name is coming from the Hiro village (many Japanese settlers there) in Hawai which were severely affected by the tsunami in 1968. The villagers called the wave “Tsunami”.


**International Tsunami Information Center
They have an important historical tide gauge records.

***University of Hawaii Sea Level Center
We can confirm the sea level is rising around the globe.


The famous Hitachi company’s symbol image tree in Hawaii was found.


Day_36 : Disaster Scenario

A Disaster Scenario is one of the ways to raise our disaster managements. This is a kind of role playings or simulations. The science can be applied to make the scenario more real. The disaster scenarios can be applied from personal level to national one. We usually tend to have normalcy bias*, however, well-planned disaster scenarios could break such bias.

* Normalcy bias (Wikipedia)
We tend not to want to accept abnormal situations.


Day_19:POCT 概略 [Japanese]

2015年の仙台会議で防災対策としてPreparedness(事前準備)とbuilding back better(よりよい復興)の重要性が強調されましたが、POCT(臨床現場即時検査)*はまさに今必要とされている災害対応の具体的かつ実践的な処方箋の一つであることは間違いないと思います。




Source Book:
Kost, G. J. (n.d.). Global point of care: Strategies for disasters, emergencies, and public health resilience.



本書は、災害対応に関わる世界のPOCT(Point of Care Testing : 臨床現場即時検査)に関する108の事例を55章にて紹介しており、将来の災害、疫病、緊急医療、及び公衆衛生に対するしなやかな対応力(レジリエンス)を高めるロードマップを提供している。ロードマップは、専門家に対してだけではなく、コミュニティにおるすべての人への災害、疫病、緊急事態、さらには、公衆衛生の危機的状況に際してのガイドとなる。それだけではなく、個人の健康戦略の構築にも役立つはずである。本書は、主に次の10項目の内容から構成されている。
第一は、POC (Point of Care)の現状及び将来の方向性

*Point of Care Testing

** Day_9 Day_11

Day_18 : Natural disasters in Thailand

“More must be done to fight climate change” (Bangkok Post)

The above article was found on the Bangkok Post. The risk assessment mapping in Thailand* indicates the flood is the first priority to prepare. Disaster data infrastructure is challenging in Thailand to analyze. The culture to establish an excellent disaster management system in Thailand could be facilitated by the research based on the data infrastructure.

* Risk assessment mapping in Thailand (Tentative)

Day_93: Natural disasters in Thailand – National Disaster Risk Assessement Mapping

The above was already published in JAEE report.