「Asia」カテゴリーアーカイブ

Day_164 : Development Environment Disaster Cycle Model

As mentioned before in Day_56, it is clear the model, development-environment-disaster cycle model is an analyzer that can be considered in a wide range of areas. In other words, this analysis perspective raises the sociological position of natural disasters, and the stepping stone of their historical and geographical connections become clearer. We believe that it will even be possible to provide various perspectives to prevent it from being guided.

Day_56 : A cyclic model of development-environment-disaster

Analytical Viewing Angle by Causal Cycle Model: Case of Isewan Typhoon Disaster and Indian Ocean Tsunami Disaster

In this section, Isewan typhoon disaster and Indian Ocean tsunami disaster are specifically analyzed using the analysis view angle, the causal cycle model of development, environment, and disaster. The first is the Isewan Typhoon that hit Nagoya on September 26, 1959. The disaster was a turning point of disaster management in postwar Japan, but focusing on driftwood damage, which is one of the important aspects of the disaster, the economic recovery of postwar Japan, trade with the United States, and Japan. Forest management, natural disasters such as landslides, the problem of hay fever, which is also called national illness, and the inter-relationship between deforestation and natural disasters in the Philippines, which becomes today, will become clear. Second, regarding the Indian Ocean Tsunami that caused enormous damage on December 26, 2004, mainly in the countries around the Indian Ocean, the damage in Thailand will be analyzed. This analysis reveals the development-environment-disaster in Thailand and its relationship with Japan and Western countries.

The figures are shown as follows:

Figure 1: Interconnections of Typhoon Isewan Disaster

Figure 2: Interconnections of Indian Ocean Tsunami Disasters in Thailand

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Day_162: Disaster Links Library

As mentioned below, the Disaster Links Library has been created. The first draft is attached to this menu as “Disaster Links Library”. There are still many challenges ahead, however, the page will be completed step by step with adding more info.

If you have some excellent links, please let me know.

Day_148: The World Largest Disaster Links

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Day_148: The World Largest Disaster Links

Below is the disaster links site which was created a long time ago. I will renew this site step by step. In addition, some are still only in Japanese and original disaster-related pictures are omitted, so I will consider these also.

http://disasters.weblike.jp/linklibrary.html

The below disaster-related world organization’s link site is the one which was built when I was working at NIED DIL and still working as one of the products there. I am very happy to know that but I would like to renew this also to contribute to the institute with my gratitude in the near future, I hope.

https://dil.bosai.go.jp/link/world/english/index.html

Day_143 : World Disaster Chronology 1996-1997

Date Place Disaster Type Situations
1996.01- US, East Cold Wave Over 200(DM) Snowstorm
1996.02.17 Indonesia, East (Irian Jaya) Submarine Earthquake M8.1～8.2, 170(DM) Tsunami to Pulau Biak
1996.04- Mongolia Bush Fire The worst bush fire in Mongolia’s  history.
1996.05- Bangladesh Tornado 1,000-1,500(DM) One of the worst tornado disaster in the world
1996.05- Tanzania Strong Wind Over 500(DM)
1996.05- Pakistan Heat Wave Over100(D)
1996.06- China Heavy rain, Flood Over 220(DM), Landslide
1996.06- China, South Heavy rain, Flood Over 1,700(D)
1996.07- China Typhoon, Flood Over500(DM)
1996.07- India Heavy rain, Flood Over750(DM)
1996.07- North Korea Heavy rain, Flood DM(several hundred), Estimated large-scale starving caused by two years successive floods.
1996.07- Nepal Heavy rain, Flood Over210(DM)
1996.09- Japan Typhoon, Flood 11(D), Injured 70 ,Destroyed 900, Inundated over12,000
1996.11- India Cyclone, Flood Over 2,000(DM)
1996.12- Malaysia Typhoon, Flood 200(DM)
1997.01- Madagascar Cyclone, Flood 100(DM)
1997.02- Peru Heavy rain, Floods, and Landslides Over380(DM)
1997.02.28 Iran, Northwest Inland Earthquake M5.5-6.1, 965-1,100 (DM) *
1997.05.10 Iran, East Inland Earthquake M6.8-7.3, 1,600（DM)*
1997.05- Bangladesh Typhoon, Flood Over500(DM)
1997.06- China, Sichuan Heavy rain, Flood, and Landslide 140(DM)
1997.07.09 Venezuela Inland Earthquake M6.9、Over76(DM)
1997.07- Germany/Poland, North Heavy rain, Flood 110(DM) Oder river flooding
1997.08- Japan Heavy rain, Flood 5(D),Inundated Over 14,000
1997.08- China Typhoon, Flood 140(DM)
1997.08- India, North Heavy rain, Flood, and Landslide 130-280(DM)
1997.08- India Tidal wave 400(DM)
1997.09- Japan Typhoon, Flood 12(D), Destroyed approx.200, Inundated over 16,000
1997.09- Pakistan Heavy rain, Flood Over 140(DM), Lahore
1997.10- Mexico Hurricane, Flood Over 400(DM)
1997.10- Somalia Heavy rain, Flood Over 1,700(D)
1997.11- Ecuador Heavy rain, Flood Over 140(DM)
1997.12- Peru Heavy rain, Flood Over 300(D)
1997.12- Brazil and others Forest fire Amazon rainforest conflagration
1997.12- Zambia Heavy rain, Flood Over 200(DM)
1998.02.04 Afghanistan, Northeast Inland Earthquake M5.9-6.1,  2,300(DM)
1998.03- Pakistan Heavy rain, Flood Over300(DM)
1998.03- India Tornado Over 200(DM)
1998.05.31 Afghanistan, Northeast Inland Earthquake M6.6-6.9, 4,000-5,000(DM)
1998.05- India Heat Wave Over 3,000(D)
1998.05- Italy Heavy rain, Flood 180-300(DM)
1998.06- India Typhoon, Flood 1,000(DM)
1998.06- Nepal Heavy rain, Flood Over 110(DM)
1998.06- China Heavy rain, Flood Over 4,200(DM) Yangtze river and other rivers floods, over 200 million (affected)
1998.07- US, South Heat Wave Over 170(DM)
1998.07- India/Bangladesh Heavy rain, Flood Over 3,000(DM) Ganges River flood
1998.07- Uzbekistan Heavy rain, Flood Over 700(DM), a dam was collapsed
1998.07.17 New Guinea, North Submarine Earthquake New Guinea Earthquake and Tsunami M7.1  2,800(DM)
1998.08- South Korea Heavy rain, Flood 250-330(DM)
1998.08- Japan Heavy rain, Flood 25(DM), Destroyed approx.480, Inundation over 13,000
1998.09- Japan Typhoon, Flood 18(DM), Injured 570, Destroyed approx.21,000, Inundation over 8,600, Typhoon No.7,8
1998.09- Japan Typhoon, Flood 9(D), Destroyed approx.100, Inundation over 17,000, Typhoon No.9
1998.09- Japan Typhoon, Flood 14(DM), Injured 60, Destroyed approx.700, Inundation over 12,000, Typhoon No.10
1998.09- Haiti Dominica Typhoon, Flood Over 500(DM), Hurricane George
1998.09- Mexico Heavy rain, Flood Over 1,400(DM)
1998.10- Nicaragua Volcano Over 1,600(DM) Mudslide
1998.11- Thailand Typhoon, Flood 100(DM)
1998.11.29 Eastern Indonesia (Serum Sea) Submarine Earthquake M7.7-8.3  40(DM) Tsunami

* Iran has a lot of earthquake disasters. The below can be referred.

Day_81 : Earthquake disasters in Asia (1) – Iran

This world disaster chronology is a draft version.  It will be combined with other years and polished later.

Day_137 : Aging Asia to Natural Disasters -Thailand(2)-

Day_68 indicates Thai population in 2012 was 64,460,000 and the proportion of those over 65 is 8.6 percent (11 percent in 2016) compared to 3.1 percent in 1970. This shows that Thailand is facing an aging society and the World Population Prospects* predicts this trend will accelerate. This situation is not exclusively in Thailand, but can likewise be viewed in almost all Asian nations. In addition, Asia is the most vulnerable in terms of natural disasters such as 7 of 10 of the deadliest natural disasters (1980-2014) took place in this region(Day_79). The World Bank mentions how Thailand faces the aging society from an economic development perspective, however, we also need to recognize this from a disaster reduction viewpoint. Okushiri island case can give us a significant insight(Day_75). This gives us a challenge of how disaster-resilient society can be established in the situation.

The World Bank notices**:
The Thai population is aging rapidly. The declining share of the working-age population will affect economic growth.
– As of 2016, 11% of the Thai population (about 7.5 million people) are 65 years or older, compared to 5% in 1995.
-By 2040, it is projected that 17 million Thais will be 65 years or older – more than a quarter of the population.
-Together with China, Thailand has the highest share of elderly people of any developing country in East Asia and Pacific.
-The primary driver of aging has been the steep decline in fertility rates, which fell from 6.1 in 1965 to 1.5 in 2015, as a result of rising incomes and education levels and the successful National Family Planning Program launched in 1970.
-The working-age population is expected to shrink by around 11% as a share of the total population between now and 2040 – from 49 million people to around 40.5 million people.
–This decline in the working-age population is higher in Thailand than in all other developing East Asia and Pacific countries, including China.

Day_79 : Disaster trends in developed and developing countries

Day_75 : Okushiri Island (2)

* World Population Prospects
https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

** World Bank, 2016
Thailand Economic Monitor – June 2016: Aging Society and Economy

Disaster data and statistics can be referred by the following link:
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/statistics/

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Day_130 : Natural Disasters in China (2) – Two Earthquake Disasters

 

Two Earthquakes
Yang Zhang William Drake, et al. (2016)* indicates interesting views on two earthquakes disaster recoveries, the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The point is, why the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake recovery was so rapid compared to the 1976’s earthquake.
However, the paper could add more about the total background changes of China such as society, economy, and politics. The china has changed dramatically after the 1976 from historical viewpoints.

The Tangshan earthquake is one of the deadliest disasters in the world and the Wenchuan earthquake is one of the top ten costliest disasters in the world also. Munich Re ranked the Wenchuan as the top four costliest disaster after the Japanese Tsunami (2011), the Hurricane Katrina (2005). and the Kobe Earthquake (1995). The number of deaths caused by the Tangshan is still controversial because of the Chinese government’s political climates at the time.

A Comparison of the two earthquakes

tanchanwenchan
Yang Zhang William Drake, et al. (2016)

The Rapid Disaster Recovery after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake
Yang Zhang William Drake, et al. (2016) describes the following points, historical and socio-economic contexts, why the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake recovery was so rapid compared to the 1976’s earthquake.

[Historical context]

  1. The Chinese government drew lessons from its handling of the Tangshan earthquake recovery. The government emphasized the importance of planning for coordinated reconstruction.
  2. China had established a strong planning institution to support its rapid growth agenda since the economic reform began in the late 1970s. The contrast of recovery planning between the two earthquakes highlights the notion that a pre-existing planning institution and pre-existing policy documents that describe development visions for a disaster area.

[Socio-economic context]

  1. China’s ability to promptly fund the earthquake recovery was far superior in the 2000s. China’s annual GDP in the year prior to the Wenchuan earthquake was 3.494 trillion USD 2007, which was 22 times its GDP in 1975.
  2. The earthquake happened less than three months before the Beijing Olympic Games. It was in the government’s best interest to move swiftly with the response and recovery to ensure social stability for the Olympic Games.
  3. The global economic downturn of 2008 might have also played a role in speeding up the earthquake recovery. To stimulate the economy, heavy investment in the earthquake recovery became a convenient policy option.

However, many things can be added about the above points such as the acceptance of international aids (Day_95).

Day_95 : World Disaster Chronology 1976 (1)

 

This rapid recovery from Wenchuan reminds us the Japanese historical trends  from 1945 to 1959, especially after the Typhoon Isewan in 1959. The Haiti’s cases, 2010 Earthquake and 2016 Hurricane Matthew also can be found as the same analogy (The below related articles across the web).

The Meanings of the Lessons
We cannot experience the disasters so often, of course, we do not want to have disasters. This is why we should learn from the past disasters and this is what we can do all the time.

*Yang Zhang William Drake, et al. (2016) Disaster Recovery Planning after Two Catastrophes: The 1976 Tangshan Earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 34(2):174-203

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Day_129 : Natural Disasters in China (1) – Two Earthquake Disasters

Overviews

The overviews of Natural Disasters in China are the followings:

1) Death numbers
death_china2
Source: EM-DAT

2) Affected numbers
affected_china
Source: EM-DAT

3) Damage costs
damage_china
Source: EM-DAT

Natural disasters in China are very large scales reflected country’s population and geographical sizes. Also, we need to know that China has been a rapidly growing economy. We can confirm the normal historical trends of natural disasters from human sufferings to economic damages which this note already mentioned (Day_77). For instance, the top 10 deadliest natural disasters in China are all before 1970s. On the contrary, the top 10 costliest natural disasters in China are all after 1990s.

Day_77 : Historical trends of the damages caused by natural disasters

Two Earthquakes
Yang Zhang William Drake, et al. (2016)* indicates interesting views on two earthquakes disaster recoveries, the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The point is, why the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake recovery was so rapid compared to the 1976’s earthquake.
However, the paper could add the total background changes of China such as economy and politics. The china has changed dramatically after the 1976 from historical viewpoints.

A Comparison of the two earthquakes will be explained…..

*Yang Zhang William Drake, et al. (2016) Disaster Recovery Planning after Two Catastrophes: The 1976 Tangshan Earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 34(2):174-203

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Day_124 : Chain Reactions of Economic Damage- 2011 Chao Phraya River Flood in Thailand (3) Horizontal and Vertical Damage Exacerbations

Continue to explain the chain reactions of economic damage caused by Chao Phraya river flood. There were horizontal and vertical damage exacerbations types.

Concerning the horizontal damage exacerbations, we sometimes neglect indirect severe impacts caused by disasters. However, in this global world, economic activities are connected each other and so do the impacts. The following Figure 1 shows the three types of disaster exacerbations for example. The first category is “All or most factories of one’s own as well as those of partners suffer serious flood damage”. This category is the severest. The second category is “One’s factories suffer serious damage, but partners suffer no or light damage”. The third category is “One’s factories suffer no or light damage while partners suffer serious damage”. However, if the one’s factory totally relies on the partners which are affected by the disaster could have a very serious impact.

supply_holizontal
Figure 1  Damage types and severities (Horizontal)

With respect to the vertical damage exacerbation, the key word is the suppliers’ responsibility. For example, a big major car company has the responsibility for customers to supply cars, subcontractors have the responsibility for the car company to supply the parts,  sub-subcontractors have the responsibility for the subcontractors to supply the parts of the parts, sub-sub-subcontractors have the responsibility for the sub-subcontractors to supply the parts of the parts of the parts, and so on. The numbers of the companies become larger along with this vertical pyramidal structure. However, their resources are opposite as mentioned in Figure 2. Industrial estates and parks ordered the evacuation for the companies very slowly at that time of the flood because of some reasons (The reasons will be explained). However, the big companies continued their activities until the time, so sub and sub-sub and sub-sub-sub contractors could not evacuate until the bigger (upstream) companies’ evacuation decision making because of the supplier’s responsibilities. The big companies could evacuate so fast and effectively. They have the resources to do so. However, smaller companies could not evacuate so fast because they needed to wait until the bigger company’s evacuation decision and they tended to have limited resources along with the structure. They, for instance, could not move heavy machines to the upper floors. They did not have enough employees, systems, or plans to do so.

supply_vertical
Figure 2  Damage types and severities (Vertical)

These are the outlines of the disaster damage exacerbation of the supply chains.  These are presented at several meetings in Japan.

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Day_122 : Japanese Disaster History after the Second World War (2)

Japanese disaster history has three turning points. The first is the Typhoon Isewan (Vera) in 1959. The second is the Kobe earthquake disaster in 1995, the third is the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (GEJET) disaster in 2011(Day_33).

Day_33 : Japanese Disaster History after the Second World War

You can see the following figure 1 which displays the dead and missing numbers caused by natural disasters in Japan.

deathtollafterww2
Figure 1 The dead and missing numbers caused by natural disasters in Japan

After the second world war, Japan was vulnerable, so we had a lot of natural disasters, especially Typhoon disasters from 1945 to 1959. We call this 15 years a great flood and storm era. The first hit was Typhoon Makurazaki on Sep. 1945.The typhoon disrupted Hiroshima city. There were 1229 casualties in the city. This fact reminds us what happened in Hiroshima in the same year (Day_34(Re)).

Day_34 (rev): The meanings of the Typhoon Makurazaki in 1945

The Isewan Typhoon has the following aspects: 1) Physical damages were tremendous 2) Lack of consideration of disaster prevention 3) Inadequate flood defense system 4) Inadequate warning and evacuation system ( The details will be explained later) After the Typhoon Isewan, disaster countermeasures basic act was enacted in 1961. The act combined many disasters related laws into one. After the Isewan Typhoon, we Japanese had thought we were successfully mitigating natural disasters.  You can see the dead and missing numbers were dropped right after the Isewan Typhoon by Figure 1.  This is mainly because of infrastructures and the development of science and technologies such as warning systems along with Japanese rapid economic growth. In addition, we had, fortunately, no huge natural hazards until the Kobe earthquake in 1995.

After the period of1960-1994, we have faced the Kobe Earthquake in 1995. Then, we realized that we could not prevent natural disasters, however, we could mitigate natural disasters after the earthquake. We also learned the importance of soft countermeasures as well as hard countermeasures. The Japanese Government had changed the policies again. The Kobe earthquake facilitated volunteer activities. Many social scientists started to investigate disasters. Before the disaster, natural scientists and engineers are the main players to do disaster-related research along with Japanese infrastructure centered policies. After that, we had confidence again and we thought we could be a model for other countries. The World Conference on Disaster Reduction was held in Kobe in 2005. Kobe city tried to be a center of world disaster-related organizations. (This Kobe earthquake disaster will be explained later)

However, we faced the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (GEJET) disaster in 2011. The GEJET disaster became the worst ever disaster in Japan after the second world war. The GEJET broke the Japanese confidence again and reconsider our strategies.

To be continued

*Disaster countermeasures basic act:
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/policies/v.php?id=30940&cid=87

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Day_121 : Chain Reactions of Economic Damage- 2011 Chao Phraya River Flood in Thailand (2)

Continue the last topic.

Day_120 : Chain Reactions of Economic Damage- 2011 Chao Phraya River Flood in Thailand (1)

There were three inquiries to ponder as follows:
1) Why were so many foreign companies coming and making supply chains?
2) What kinds of damage types could be analyzed and how about the influences?
3) How did companies respond?

Concerning the 1) Why were so many foreign companies, especially Japanese companies coming and making supply chains? There are reasons from Thailand and Japan sides. The first, Thai national government tried to de-centralize to narrow the gaps between Bangkok and other regions because so many things concentrated in Bangkok. To do this, establishing industrial estates and parks is the one of the effective ways to mobilize the people, things, and investments from Bangkok to the regions. The national government also had set some tax incentives to motivate foreign companies to come. Thailand is the very nice place for Japanese to stay because of the education systems, medical services, abundant labor force, people’s character, safety, and so on. The second, Japan had faced the problems of the rising yen after the Plaza agreement in 1985. Big companies, especially manufacturers, which had international businesses decided to move to Thailand to produce their products. After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the world economic climate became worse and the yen’s price was getting higher and higher again. Small companies, this time, could not endure the situations and moved to Thailand to deal with the big companies which already transferred in Thailand. Again, the attached graph (Figure 4) indicates so many Japanese companies came these areas after 1985, the year of the Plaza Agreement.  A number of  the JCC (The Japanese Chamber of Commerce) BKK member reflects the situations.

japanese-companies
Figure 4  Japanese enterprises coming to Thailand

To be continued…………..

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