Disaster researchers often refer to the PAR (Press and Release) model to understand the risk.
The PAR model was described in the book “At Risk”. This book is a kind of bible for disaster researchers. Disaster Risk is described as an overlapped area between Hazard and Vulnerability.
The Disaster risk should also consider “Exposure” and “Capacity”. The capacity has mainly two parts, Hard and Soft. In short, Capacity Hard (CH) means tangible factors and Capacity Soft(CS) means intangible ones. For instance, infrastructure is CH and education is CS. The Disaster risk usually can be identified by the following picture. Figure 1 indicates the above.
Figure 1 Disaster Risk
Using the below equation, disaster risk would be identified.
Disaster Risk = H*E*V/ (CH+CS)
Each factor such as E (Exposure) could be identified by mainly statistic data in the target area.
To do this, the indices can be established. The data to contribute each factor should be carefully examined.
Figure 2 is the national level Index Image of Thailand.
Figure 2 Social Vulnerability
To be continued…..